Elon Musk Says Robot “Optimus” Will Bring Tesla $25 Trillion Market Cap

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Elon Musk Says Robot “Optimus” Will Bring Tesla $25 Trillion Market Cap

At its annual shareholder meeting, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the company’s new humanoid robot Optimus, also known as the “Tesla bot,” will cause its market cap to hit $25 trillion. Today, Tesla has a market cap of $589.55 billion.

“[If] autonomous transport is a called sort of a $5-7 trillion market cap situation, Optimus I think is a $25 trillion market cap situation,” Musk said. He also predicted that Tesla would have “over 1,000, maybe a few thousand Optimus robots working at our factories next year.”

As CNBC points out, the entirety of the S&P 500 is currently valued at $45.5 trillion, according to FactSet. Tesla first announced it would plan to work on humanoid robots at the AI Day event in 2021.

In December, Tesla debuted footage of Optimus walking and exercising. In one video, Optimus was shown folding laundry; critics claimed Musk was dishonest for the video, as it implied the robot was doing it autonomously when in actuality it was being controlled remotely.

At the shareholder meeting, Musk said the robots could one day be operating like the droids in Star Wars, doing errands and chores, factory work, and even teaching children.

Musk laid out some numbers. Assuming that Tesla has 10 percent share of Optimus building, and that Optimus has a build rate of 100 million Optimus robots per year, and that the robots could be made for $10,000 and sold for roughly $20,000, Tesla would make roughly $1 trillion a year in profit. “That would mean a $20 trillion market cap from Optimus alone,” if the price earnings multiple is 20-25.

Musk also said those are conservative estimates, suggesting that Optimus could be building one billion robots a year and that Tesla could have a larger share.

“I think everyone in the world is going to want one,” Musk said. “Like literally everyone. And then there will be robots in industry, making stuff.” He envisioned the ratio between humanoids and humans will be 2:1, “1:1 for sure, which means somewhere on the order 10 billion humanoid robots.” He added that there could be “20 to 30 billion robots” roaming the earth. He is confident that Optimus’ build rate could be one billion robots per year (“for reference, the auto industry is roughly 100 million vehicles per year”).

With autonomous technology, Musk believes Tesla’s value can be increased tenfold.

At the shareholder meeting, Musk also said “two homicidal maniacs” attempted to assassinate him over the last seven months.